U.S. Labor Data Cools Down, Intraday Copper Futures Edge Up [SMM Copper Futures Brief Review]

Published: Jan 9, 2025 18:55

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US ADP employment data fell short of expectations, and signs of a cooling labour market may lead the US to keep interest rates unchanged in January despite persistently high inflation. However, underlying inflation and pressure on US Treasury bonds remain. During the day, the US dollar index climbed back above 109 points before dropping back slightly. After the Asian session, LME copper rose from around $9,050/mt to approximately $9,100/mt.

SMM, January 8:

The US ADP employment data fell short of expectations, indicating signs of cooling in the labour market. This may lead the US to keep interest rates unchanged in January despite persistently high inflation, though underlying inflation and US Treasury pressure remain. During the day, the US dollar index climbed back above 109 points before dropping back slightly. After the Asian session, LME copper rose from around $9,050/mt to approximately $9,100/mt.

The SHFE copper 2502 contract fluctuated and climbed during the day, testing 74,980 yuan/mt before the close. It settled at 74,920 yuan/mt, up 480 yuan/mt or 0.64%, with a trading volume of 55,128 lots and current open interest of 141,689 lots, an increase of 888 lots. The SHFE copper 2503 contract recorded a trading volume of 38,594 lots, with current open interest of 129,517 lots, an increase of 23,536 lots. The price spread between the SHFE copper 2502 and 2503 contracts fluctuated between C60-C90 yuan/mt during the day.

Intraday, the performance of copper futures was strong, supported by the cooling US labour market, which provided upward momentum. SHFE copper moved to the upper part of the candlestick near the 60-day moving average, with multiple moving averages providing support at the bottom. However, the US Fed's December meeting minutes showed a cautious stance on subsequent interest rate cuts, suggesting a moderate rise in copper futures. Tonight, attention will focus on whether LME copper can break through $9,100/mt and SHFE copper can test 75,000 yuan/mt.

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